In Orange County, the share of households earning $30,000 or less was 13.1 percent. But among households that moved out, the $30,000-and-under slice hit 24.3 percent.
Who’s priced out of Orange County?
Apparently, more people than you might assume.
Real estate website Trulia crunched some numbers and found that millennials and households earning $30,000 or less a year have been moving away at higher rates than expected.
The study looked at residents getting squeezed out of America’s most expensive metro areas, including San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Silver Spring, Md., Washington D.C., San Jose, Oakland and San Diego. It used data from the 2014 5-year U.S. Census American Community Survey in comparison to that of remaining households.
The analysis started with the assumption that if households in a metro area fall into certain earnings and other categories, those leaving would reflect about the same percentages. But they didn’t.
The study found:
- In Orange County, the share of households earning $30,000 or less was 13.1 percent. But among those leaving, the $30,000-and-under slice hit 24.3 percent. The numbers in Los Angeles County were 21.5 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively.
- Seen another way, the move-away compared to expectations rate among earning $30,000 or less in Orange County was a whopping 85.9 percent. It was 49.7 percent in L.A.
- Millennials – 18-34 year olds – in Orange County made up 20.6 percent of households, but 46 percent of those moving, representing a move-away-related-to expectations rate of 122.7 percent. In Los Angeles County, the respective slices were 24.4 percent and 48.8 percent, with a move-away-compared-to-expectations rate of 100.2 percent.
- In every metro in the study, households with $30,000 or less moved out at the highest rate relative to expectations – 50.8 percent overall.
- Those earning more than $150,000 a year moved out at the smallest rate relative to expectations, while those making $120,000-$150,000 represented the smallest group of everyone leaving.
- Residents taking in under $30,000 left San Francisco at the highest rates of all areas.
- Millennials represented the largest share of all age groups leaving pricey metros, at more than 51 percent. They also had the highest move-away-relative-to-expectations rate, at 105.6 percent.
The median price of an Orange County home – or the sale price at the midpoint of all transactions – was $625,000 in the year ending in March, Irvine-based CoreLogic reported last week. That’s within $20,000 of the all-time high local sales prices hit at the peak of the housing bubble in June 2007.
Source: The Orange County Register